Trend Hunter Strategy Performance
In Commodities, 90.8% of closed setups closed in profit.
How the results have grown
Every setup counts with the same capital, without leverage. 100 means a profit equal to the whole capital of one setup.
At a glance
- 90.8%of closed setups closed in profitReached the first target: 93.4%
- 11 / 12profitable yearsSince 2015
- 20.42profit factorTotal profit divided by total loss
- 4.0days to the first targetTypical days in a setup: 33
Trend Hunter Strategy is the daily strategy of 4CastMachine AI. Every setup is recorded with its entry, its targets and its final result, and published every week.
Results of the published Trend Hunter Strategy setups, before trading costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The numbers behind it
Year by year
Each bar is the result of one year. Choose a year to see only its setups.
Show the numbers
| Year | Setups closed | Closed in profit | Average result | Points | Result of the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 9 | 100.0% | +0.37% | +24,664 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 3 | 100.0% | +1.52% | +4,544 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 2 | 100.0% | +1.73% | +876 | +7.0 |
| 2018 | 2 | 50.0% | −1.40% | −673 | −2.8 |
| 2019 | 7 | 85.7% | +1.05% | +38,800 | +19.9 |
| 2020 | 7 | 85.7% | +10.93% | +88,582 | +61.7 |
| 2021 | 5 | 100.0% | +6.78% | +53,447 | +28.1 |
| 2022 | 9 | 100.0% | +1.24% | +108,629 | +20.6 |
| 2023 | 12 | 100.0% | +2.30% | +21,822 | +23.9 |
| 2024 | 8 | 75.0% | +2.33% | +6,758 | +115.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | 71.4% | +0.52% | +1,536 | +44.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | 100.0% | +8.69% | +90,608 | +43.4 |
How the setups closed
After the first target the stop moves to the entry, so most setups end with a profit or at the entry price.
| How it closed | Setups | Closed in profit | Average result | Typical days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the entry price, after a target | 65 | 92.3% | +1.61% | 23 |
| Break of a major support | 9 | 100.0% | +15.32% | 153 |
| Stop loss | 2 | 0.0% | −5.94% | 15 |
How Trend Hunter Strategy trades
- Enter in the zone4CastMachine AI marks a Buy zone or a Sell zone on the daily chart. A setup opens there when a daily candle confirms the turn.
- Take profit step by stepEach target closes one trade in profit. After the first target the stop moves to the entry, so the capital is protected.
- Stay with the trendThe last trade has no target. It stays open for as long as the trend lasts.
The three markets side by side
Each market is counted on its own. They are never added together.
| Market | Since | Setups closed | Closed in profit | Profit factor | Average result | Profitable years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forex | 2015 | 983 | 90.0% | 7.72 | +0.98% | 12 / 12 |
| Commodities | 2015 | 130 | 89.2% | 5.74 | +2.41% | 12 / 12 |
| Crypto | 2017 | 780 | 85.6% | 6.38 | +16.92% | 5 / 10 |
Entry methods
Choose a row to see only its setups.
| Entry method | Setups closed | Closed in profit | Average result | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valley | 76 | 90.8% | +3.04% | 20.42 |
| Peak | 26 | 88.5% | +0.93% | 1.87 |
| Hammer | 18 | 94.4% | +2.43% | 5.44 |
| Shooting Star | 4 | 25.0% | −0.49% | 0.88 |
| Two-day reversal (Hammer) | 4 | 100.0% | +4.13% | - |
| Two-day reversal (Shooting Star) | 2 | 100.0% | +0.25% | - |
Results by symbol (5)
Choose a symbol to see its own results.
What if you exit in another way?
The same setups with twelve ways to exit. The published plan takes profit at several targets; each of the others uses one exit.
| Exit plan | Trades | Closed in profit | Average result | Average in R | Profit factor | Longest losing run | Profitable years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As published | 76 | 90.8% | +3.04% | +0.51R | 20.42 | 1 | 11 / 12 |
| 80 | 93.8% | +3.17% | +0.42R | - | 0 | 12 / 12 | |
| 80 | 58.8% | +3.63% | +0.54R | 22.84 | 1 | 12 / 12 | |
| 80 | 47.5% | +5.48% | +0.79R | 34.00 | 1 | 11 / 12 | |
| 76 | 11.8% | +3.68% | +0.56R | 22.09 | 1 | 5 / 12 | |
| 76 | 90.8% | +3.38% | +0.50R | 44.97 | 1 | 11 / 12 | |
| Simulated | 61 | 80.3% | +4.29% | +0.53R | 2.97 | 3 | 10 / 12 |
| Simulated | 60 | 71.7% | +4.68% | +0.70R | 2.38 | 3 | 8 / 12 |
| Simulated | 59 | 66.1% | +5.68% | +0.86R | 2.46 | 4 | 8 / 12 |
| Simulated | 57 | 43.9% | +1.96% | +0.43R | 1.29 | 13 | 5 / 12 |
| Simulated | 57 | 36.8% | +2.80% | +0.47R | 1.38 | 14 | 5 / 12 |
| Simulated | 57 | 35.1% | +4.41% | +0.71R | 1.58 | 15 | 5 / 12 |
Simulated on past daily candles, not the published record. Before trading costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
One target at 2R: One target at 2 times the risk. R is the distance from the entry to the daily pivot. The stop is a healthy daily candle that closes beyond the pivot.
Closed results of the chosen plan beside the published plan
Every setup, one by one
Open any setup on its daily chart and check it yourself. Setups: 80
| Direction | How it closed | Points | Chart | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2044 | XAUUSD | Buy | 2026-07-21 | 2026-10-07 | At the entry price, after a target | +2.20% | +89,543 | 78 | Daily chart |
| 2041 | BRENT | Buy | 2026-07-07 | Open now | - | +24.95% | +18,900 | 131 | Daily chart |
| 2040 | WTI | Buy | 2026-07-07 | Open now | - | +22.30% | +12,843 | 131 | Daily chart |
| 2023 | NGAS | Buy | 2026-04-30 | 2026-07-10 | At the entry price, after a target | +1.22% | +31 | 71 | Daily chart |
| 2015 | NGAS | Buy | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-16 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.66% | +18 | 14 | Daily chart |
| 2008 | NGAS | Buy | 2026-01-19 | 2026-02-11 | At the entry price, after a target | +9.91% | +239 | 23 | Daily chart |
| 1968 | BRENT | Buy | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-29 | At the entry price, after a target | 0.00% | 0 | 6 | Daily chart |
| 1967 | WTI | Buy | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-29 | At the entry price, after a target | 0.00% | 0 | 6 | Daily chart |
| 1958 | NGAS | Buy | 2025-08-27 | 2026-01-09 | At the entry price, after a target | +29.44% | +777 | 135 | Daily chart |
| 1954 | BRENT | Buy | 2025-08-20 | 2025-09-04 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.12% | +114 | 15 | Daily chart |
| 1953 | WTI | Buy | 2025-08-20 | 2025-09-04 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.13% | +96 | 15 | Daily chart |
| 1916 | BRENT | Buy | 2025-07-28 | 2025-08-04 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.27% | +321 | 7 | Daily chart |
| 1915 | WTI | Buy | 2025-07-28 | 2025-08-04 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.20% | +170 | 7 | Daily chart |
| 1703 | WTI | Buy | 2024-11-18 | 2024-12-04 | At the entry price, after a target | 0.00% | 0 | 16 | Daily chart |
| 1702 | BRENT | Buy | 2024-11-18 | 2024-12-04 | At the entry price, after a target | 0.00% | 0 | 16 | Daily chart |
| 1615 | BRENT | Buy | 2024-09-16 | 2024-10-18 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.68% | +739 | 32 | Daily chart |
| 1612 | WTI | Buy | 2024-09-12 | 2024-10-18 | At the entry price, after a target | +1.60% | +1,206 | 36 | Daily chart |
| 1606 | XAGUSD | Buy | 2024-09-11 | 2025-04-07 | At the entry price, after a target | +2.91% | +835 | 208 | Daily chart |
| 1605 | XAGUSD | Buy | 2024-08-16 | 2024-08-30 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.06% | +17 | 14 | Daily chart |
| 1614 | BRENT | Buy | 2024-08-07 | 2024-08-19 | At the entry price, after a target | +0.21% | +227 | 12 | Daily chart |
How to read these numbers
- Setup
- One trade idea of the strategy: an entry with several equal trades, one for each target and one more that stays with the trend.
- Closed in profit
- A closed setup whose trades together ended above zero.
- Profit factor
- The total profit of the winning setups divided by the total loss of the losing setups. Above 1 means the profits were larger.
- Result of a setup
- The profit or loss on the whole capital of the setup, without leverage and before trading costs.
- Pullback
- The largest fall of the results curve from a high to the next low.
- R
- The risk of a trade: the distance from the entry to the stop. A result of 2R is twice that distance.
Results of the published Trend Hunter Strategy setups, before trading costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.